We currently see across the board weakness in San Francisco’s residential real estate market throughout 2009 as economic woes compound the impact of tighter credit markets and a shift in market psychology.
Downturns in residential real estate have traditionally been triggered by a downturn in either the local or national economy. The reality which we’ve foreshadowed for quite some time is that the majority of the current market weakness in San Francisco, the Bay Area, and beyond has been driven by a contraction in the credit markets (the deflation of a credit bubble) and a recent shift in market psychology (the deflation of a speculative bubble). The real impact of a weakening economy is yet to come.
With an economy that generally lags the financial markets by nine to twelve months, the full brunt of October’s melt-down won’t be felt for at least another six months. And we expect to see continued weakness in both consumer and corporate spending over at least the next couple of quarters which will further depress corporate earnings and likely lead to additional layoffs and stoke the real real estate killer, unemployment.
With no discernable recovery in sight, we expect the financial market’s destruction of wealth both real (investments) and potential (options) to continue to drag down the San Francisco residential market throughout 2009, and to weigh particularly heavy on the luxury market.
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